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Probability forecasts : a survey of national weather service forecasters
Murphy, Allan H.; Winkler, Robert L. - 1975 - Reprint
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000629796
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Weather, the forgotten factor in business cycle analyses
Döhrn, Roland; Meulen, Philipp an de - 2015
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the … underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle … weather-related from business cycle-related influences on economic indicators. We find a significant influence of weather …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010473134
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Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets : the influence of environmental conditions on forecasting accuracy
Costa Sperb, Luis Felipe; Sung, Ming-chien; Johnson, … - In: International journal of forecasting 35 (2019) 1, pp. 321-335
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012300648
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Nowcasting economic growth in India : the role of rainfall
Iyer, Tara; Gupta, Abhijit Sen - 2019
This study provides a toolkit to nowcast, or produce early estimates of, gross domestic product (GDP) growth in India. We use a dynamic factor model (DFM) to nowcast GDP growth in India on a quarterly basis from January 2000 to December 2018. The DFM methodology offers a powerful and tractable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012110450
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A state space approach to evaluate multihorizon forecasts
Goodwin, Thomas; Tian, Jing - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011884085
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A state space approach to evaluate multi-horizon forecasts
Goodwin, Thomas; Tian, Jing - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746840
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Epidemiological versus meteorological forecasts : best practice for linking models to policymaking
Coughlan Perez, Erin de; Stephens, Elisabeth; Van … - In: International journal of forecasting 38 (2022) 2, pp. 521-526
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348615
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Bayesian Herders : Optimistic Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Forecasts
Lybbert, Travis J.; Barrett, Christopher B.; McPeak, John G. - 2008
Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world's poor. Model based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014065092
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The value of weather forecasts : evidence from labor responses to accurate versus inaccurate temperature forecasts in China
In: Journal of environmental economics and management : … 125 (2024), pp. 1-23
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069644
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Using asymmetric loss functions in time series econometrics
Titova, Anna - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021670