inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational … separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job …

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that …

modifies a wage–price-setting (WPS) model to forecast U.S. inflation over one- to three-year horizons. The out …-of-sample forecast results show that productivity growth is a useful predictor of inflation, in the sense that the modified WPS model … improved further by combining productivity growth with anchored inflation expectations. Interestingly, during the 2000 …

The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model … forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …

which professional forecasters' inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are `theory consistent', and find much … heterogeneity. Perceptions about the responsiveness of inflation to the unemployment rate are shown to depend on whether the … disagreement in reported inflation forecasts …

's inflation forecasts. We estimate forward-looking Phillips curves on each respondent's inflation and unemployment rate forecasts …

relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New … stability, a few years where inflation was driven mainly by external shocks, and the financial crisis, where the New Keynesian … expectations on inflation and a resurgence of the 'sacrifice ratio' …

We analyze forecasts of inflation and GDP growth contained in Banco de México's Survey of Professional Forecasters for … ; Inflation forecasting ; Macroeconomic forecasting ; Panel data ; Surveys. …

This paper assesses the OECD’s projections for GDP growth and inflation during the global financial crisis and recovery … the slowdown and later the weak pace of the recovery – errors made by many other forecasters. At the same time, inflation …