increase markedly. DIW Berlin calculates that global produc- tion will shrink by 4.0 percent in 2020. During the forecast …

, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3 … situation in Italy are causing uncertainty. Against this backdrop, monetary policy is likely to be expansionary in the forecast …

final quarter of 2020. If the second wave can be brought under control over the course of winter 2020/2021, as this forecast …

. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods … direct forecasts at the aggregate levels (top-down approaches), the forecast accuracy is neither improved nor deteriorated (i …

This paper introduces a simple methodology to forecast international trade. The main innovation is to calculate non …-unitary expenditure elasticities of import demand implied by non-homothetic preferences in the previous year to be further combined with … the current change in expenditure to forecast the current imports. Using U.S. data on aggregate expenditure and good …

-cycle states. We show that forecasts for recessions are subject to a large negative systematic forecast error (forecasters … overestimate growth), while forecasts for recoveries are subject to a positive systematic forecast error. Forecasts made for … expansions have, if anything, a small systematic forecast error for large forecast horizons. When we link information about the …