Forecasts are important components of information systems. They provide a means for knowledge sharing and thus have significant decision-making impact. In many organizations, it is quite common for forecast users to receive predictions that have previously been adjusted by providers or other...

Naïve 1 forecasts are often used as a benchmark when assessing the accuracy of a set of forecasts. A ratio is obtained to show the upper bound of a forecasting method's accuracy relative to naïve 1 forecasts when the mean squared error is used to measure accuracy. Formulae for the ratio are...