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Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters

Conrad, Christian; Lahiri, Kajal - 2023

Macroeconomic expectations of various economic agents are characterized by substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity. In this paper, we focus on expectations heterogeneity among professional forecasters. We first present stylized facts and discuss theoretical explanations for heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014472058

Some cross-country evidence on information rigidity in inflation forecasts

Miah, Fazlul; Al-Titi, Omar; Wane, Abdoul - In: Cogent economics & finance 11 (2023) 1, pp. 1-22

gathering picking up during the recession period. We also find that forecast revisions depend on both own country and cross …-country lagged revisions. Therefore, one source of information rigidity is not to incorporate overseas events in forecast revisions …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014500886

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting

Ottaviani, Marco; Sorensen, Peter Norman - 2011

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behavior of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014184487

The Strategy of Professional Forecasting

Ottaviani, Marco; Sorensen, Peter Norman - 2008

This paper develops and compares two theories of strategic behaviour of professional forecasters. The first theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting contest with pre-specified rules. In equilibrium of a winner-take-all contest, forecasts are excessively differentiated. According...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014122864

Modern forecasting models in action : improving macroeconomic analyses at central banks

Adolfson, Malin; Andersson, Michael K.; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2006 - Revised version

practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585648

The usefulness of the median CPI in Bayesian VARs used for macroeconomic forecasting and policy

Meyer, Brent; Zaman, Saeed - 2016

In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of trimmed-mean price statistics in forecasting inflation has often been relegated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011561107

Demographic change in Switzerland : impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model

Hauser, Luisa-Marie; Schlag, Carsten-Henning; Wolf, André - 2020

This paper analyses the macroeconomic implications of a future shift in the age structure of the Swiss population. It estimates the long-run effects for Swiss GDP growth and its components in an Overlapping Generations Model (OLG model). Recent population projections by the Federal Statistical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012205397

Inflation forecasts' performance in Latin America

Jalles, João Tovar - In: Review of development finance 7 (2017) 2, pp. 157-168

property that as the forecast horizon shortens accuracy improves. On average, forecasters underpredict inflation, but this …-ahead forecasts but not for current year. Tests' results point to forecast inefficiency which is also evidenced by a tendency to … inflation rate and the extent of underprediction increases during recessions. The hypothesis of forecast efficiency is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011779567

MIDAS modeling for core inflation forecasting

Libonatti, Luis - 2017 - This draft: December2017

, reveals a slight trend towards increased forecast accuracy as the daily variable approaches a full month for certain horizons. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771633

A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts

Carvalho, Fabia A. de - In: Economia : revista da ANPEC 14 (2013) 2, pp. 11-26

This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts that are alternative to the median response. We build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864728

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