professional forecasters provide GDP forecasts that are temporally consistent, meaning that quarterly forecasts add up to the … estimates of information frictions in some cases. For the overwhelming majority of consistent forecasts, annual GDP predictions … almost immediately reflect the monthly GDP releases. These findings suggest that most forecasters make at least minor …

opportunities to increase the accuracy of indicator-based forecasts. Focusing on quarterly GDP growth in Germany, we find that the …

nominal GDP projections are upward biased for longer forecast horizons, which seems to be driven by a false assessment of the …

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. In particular, we … models that allow us to nowcast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a … parsimonious way. We find that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well: nowcasting performance is similar …

We evaluate the forecasting performance of six different models for short-term forecasting of Macedonian GDP: 1) ARIMA … model; 2) AR model estimated by the Kalman filter; 3) model that explains Macedonian GDP as a function of the foreign demand …; 4) small structural model that links GDP components to a small set of explanatory variables; 5) static factor model that …

We analyse the performance of financial market variables in nowcasting Finnish quarterly GDP growth. Especially, we … models that allow us to forecast quarterly GDP growth using monthly or daily data without temporal aggregation in a … parsimonious way. Our results show that financial market data nowcasts Finnish GDP growth relatively well. When it comes to …

taking into account the supply or production side and the demand side of GDP. The GDP figures calculated by the two sides … usually yield different results and the official GDP release is somewhere in between. We make use of this statistical … procedure by separately modeling the two sides of GDP in a system of bridge equations at the most disaggregate level available …

and to forecast GDP growth all within the same unified setting. We classify the common component of the variables into … leading, lagging and coincident with respect to the common component of quarter-on-quarter GDP growth. 22% of the variables … Belgian GDP, while they lead euro area GDP and its confidence indicators. Consumer confidence seems to lag. Although the model …