Purpose – The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of interval measured data, rather than traditional point data, on economic variability studies. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses interval measured data to forecast the variability of future stock market changes....

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

This paper examines the usefulness of asset prices in predicting recessions in the G-7 countries. It finds that asset price drops are significantly associated with the beginning of a recession in these countries. In particular, the marginal effect of an equity/house price drop on the likelihood...

The 2005 Article IV Consultation for the United Arab Emirates reports that the prices in real estate and stock markets, have soared aided by stronger economic fundamentals and investor optimism. An outward-oriented development strategy and prudent financial policies have resulted in impressive...

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the...

Revenue forecasting is one of the most critical and often difficult tasks in governmental budgeting. It is critical because it determines the parameters upon which the budget is based. It is difficult because many outside influences can impact revenue results and cause variances with the...

The Grand Rapids industrial market started slow and steady in the first quarter of 2008 but made up for lost time during the remainder of the year. The vacancy rate decreased from 9.4 percent during the first quarter of 2008 to 7.5 percent at year-end. The consolidation, relocation, and...

Using a log-linearized approximation to an aggregate budget constraint, it is possible to show that the ratio of consumption to total (human and non-human) wealth summarizes agents' expectations concerning both future labor income and future asset returns. In a series of recent papers, Lettau...