We show that professional forecasters have essentially no ability to predict future recessions a few quarters ahead. This is particularly puzzling because, for at least the past two decades, researchers have provided much evidence that the yield curve, specifically the spread between long- and...

Presentation to community leaders, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 2, 2012

Presentation to community leaders, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 2, 2012

Commodity futures prices are frequently criticized as being uninformative for forecasting purposes because (1) they seem to do no better than a random walk or an extrapolation of recent trends and (2) futures prices for commodities often trace out a relatively flat trajectory even though global...

a speech at the National Italian American Foundation, New York, New York