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Regularized estimation of structural instability in factor models : the US macroeconomy and the great moderation
Callot, Laurent; Kristensen, Johannes Tang - 2015
This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
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Can general purpose technology theory explain economic growth? : electrical power as a case study
Ristuccia, Cristiano Andrea; Solomou, Solomos - 2014
economies? The paper develops a new comparative data set on the usage of electricity in the manufacturing sectors of the USA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010252126
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Estimation of Historical Inflation Expectations
Binder, Carola - 2016
Expected inflation is a central variable in economic theory. Economic historians have estimated historical inflation expectations for a variety of purposes, including studies of the Fisher effect, the debt deflation hypothesis, central bank credibility, and expectations formation. I survey the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989845
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Does the Structure of Banking Markets Affect Economic Growth? Evidence from U.S. State Banking Markets
Mitchener, Kris James - 2012
This paper examines the impacts of banking market structure and regulation on economic growth using new data on banking market concentration and manufacturing industry-level growth rates for U.S. states during 1899-1929 — a period when the manufacturing sector was expanding rapidly and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115288
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American Exceptionalism and the Benefits of Statehood : An Analysis of the Growth Effects of Joining the United States of America
Maseland, Robbert - 2020
Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Nevada had they not joined the USA. We show that the … growth paths of Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Philippines and Greenland in the scenario where they joined the USA at times in … institutional quality of the USA as a whole matches the quality predicted for New England most closely. This suggests that upon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842927
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The Great Moderation in Historical Perspective. Is it that Great?
Gadea Rivas, Maria Dolores - 2015
structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of … volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that … volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014407
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Treatment of the Banking Holiday of March 1933 in Growth Regressions
Mladjan, Mrdjan - 2019
Government intervention during the banking holiday of March 1933 resolved the uncertainty usually created by bank suspensions. Including banking holiday suspensions in growth regressions therefore biases downwards the estimates of the real effects of bank suspensions. In this paper, I propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012865724
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Money, Sticky Wages, and the Great Depression
Bordo, Michael D.; Erceg, Christopher J.; Evans, Charles L. - 2000
This paper examines the ability of a simple stylized general equilibrium model that incorporates nominal wage rigidity to explain the magnitude and persistence of the Great Depression in the United States. The impulses to our analysis are money supply shocks. The Taylor contracts model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014154226
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Political Parties in Power and U.S. Economic Performance
Chittenden, William T. - 2020
This study examines the interaction across all combinations of the political parties in control of the White House and both chambers of Congress. Past economic growth is not significantly different under Republican and Democratic presidential administrations. Nor does the party that controls the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840934
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Economic Growth and Recovery in the United States : 1919-1941
Field, Alexander J. - 2012
This paper has two main sections and an appendix. The first provides an overview of what lay behind record productivity growth in the US economy between 1929 and 1941. The second considers the role of rigidities and other negative supply conditions in worsening the downturn and slowing recovery....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013109816