Showing 1 - 10 of 36,691
Using new quarterly U.S. data for the past 120 years, I show that sudden reversals in equity and credit market sentiment approximated by several measures of corporate securities issuance are highly predictive of banking crises and recessions. Deviations in equity issuance from historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012431742
This paper assesses the validity of comparisons between the current financial crisis and past crises in the United States. We highlight aspects of two National Banking Era crises (the Panic of 1873 and the Panic of 1907) that are relevant for comparison with the Panic of 2008. In 1873,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013139392
This paper provides quantitative evidence on interbank transmission of financial distress in the Panic of 1907 and ensuing recession. Originating in New York City, the panic led to payment suspensions and emergency currency issuance in many cities. Data on the universe of interbank connections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287370
Stock market volatility was extremely high during the Great Depression relative to any other period in American history …-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) test for jumps in financial time-series. These jumps coincided with periods when stock volatility was … high as the arrival of new information about the uncertain future drove both the record stock volatility and the record …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057225
intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013007877
intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078965
economies? The paper develops a new comparative data set on the usage of electricity in the manufacturing sectors of the USA …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010252126
This paper examines the impacts of banking market structure and regulation on economic growth using new data on banking market concentration and manufacturing industry-level growth rates for U.S. states during 1899-1929 — a period when the manufacturing sector was expanding rapidly and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115288
Texas, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Nevada had they not joined the USA. We show that the … growth paths of Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Philippines and Greenland in the scenario where they joined the USA at times in … institutional quality of the USA as a whole matches the quality predicted for New England most closely. This suggests that upon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842927
structure and a substantial reduction of output volatility. We find two robust structural breaks in volatility at the end of … volatility reduction is only linked to expansion features. We also date the US business cycle in the long run, finding that … volatility plays a primary role in the definition of the business cycle, which has important consequences for econometricians and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014407