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Virtually everywhere? : digitalisation and the euro area and EU economies : degree, effects, and key issues
Anderton, Bob; Jarvis, Valerie; Labhard, Vincent; … - 2020
Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012254362
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Professional Forecasters and the Real-time Forecasting Performance of an Estimated New Keynesian Model for the Euro Area
Smets, Frank - 2013
(2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078530
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Okun in the euro : new evidence from structural Okun law’s estimates for the euro area, 1979-2019
Campos, Nauro; Macchiarelli, Corrado; Mitropoulos, Fotios - 2024
This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015052585
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Nowcasting Employment in the Euro Area
Banbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014354741
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Robustness and Real Consequences of Nominal Wage Rigidity
Fehr, Ernst; Goette, Lorenz - 2021
Recent studies found evidence for nominal wage rigidity during periods of relatively high nominal GDP growth. It has been argued, however, that in an environment with low nominal GDP growth, when nominal wage cuts become customary, workers' opposition to nominal cuts would erode and, hence,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013321298
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Forecasting Unemployment Rates with International Factors
Pincheira, Pablo M. - 2020
In this paper we study international linkages when forecasting unemployment rates in a sample of 24 OECD economies. We propose a Global Unemployment Factor (GUF) and test its predictive ability considering in-sample and out-of-sample exercises. Our main results indicate that the predictive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845239
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Does the Euro-Zone Diverge? A Stress Indicator for Analyzing Trends and Cycles in Real GDP and Inflation
Flaig, Gebhard; Wollmershaeuser, Timo - 2021
This paper presents a stress indicator for the eurozone that summarizes developments of trends and cycles in real GDP … and inflation in the member countries. Stress in a country is defined as the difference between the country's actual short … that stress in the eurozone is mainly due to different trend growth rates and that for most of the Euro-zone countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317182
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Economic recovery and inflation : this policy contribution was prepared for the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) as an input for the Mon...
Dąbrowski, Marek - 2018
In the last decade, advanced economies, including the euro area, experienced deflationary pressures caused by the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and the anti-crisis policies that followed - in particular, the new financial regulations (which led to a deep decline in the money multiplier)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011852813
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Nowcasting employment in the euro area
Bańbura, Marta; Belousova, Irina; Bodnár, Katalin; … - 2023
Euro area labour market variables are published with a considerable lag, longer than in the case of real GDP. We develop a suite of models to provide a more timely estimate (nowcast) of euro area quarterly employment growth based on a broad range of monthly indicators. The suite includes a batch...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014315194
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PCCI : a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area
Bańbura, Marta; Bobeica, Elena - 2020
Inflation (PCCI), a measure of underlying inflation in the euro area. The PCCI reflects the view that underlying inflation … component of inflation. Methodologically, it relies on a generalised dynamic factor model estimated on a large set of … disaggregated HICP inflation rates for 12 euro area countries. For each individual inflation rate, we estimate a low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301116