Over the past decades, cross-border financial flows have increased in importance and have in many occasions exceeded the underlying current account positions. This phenomenon has been accompanied by an increase in the volume of international equity transactions that accentuate the role of...

We investigate the predictive ability of financial and macroeconomic variables for German stock and bond returns using a battery of performance metrics in addition to measures of superior predictive accuracy to identify the ‘best' models. We also examine whether combination forecasts provide...

A great proportion of stock dynamics can be explained using publicly available information. The relationship between dynamics and public information may be of nonlinear character. In this paper we offer an approach to stock picking by employing so-called decision trees and applying them to XETRA...

The problem is to evaluate the likelihood that a country will face a currency or balance of payments crisis over a given horizon. When is it rational for market participants to expect a depreciation of the currency? On the basis of considerable empirical studies we know that in both banking and...

Estimated DSGE models tend to ascribe a significant and often predominant part of a country's trade balance (TB) dynamics to domestic drivers ("shocks"), suggesting foreign factors to be only of secondary importance. This paper revisits the result based on more agnostic approaches to shock...

During the 2011-2015 period, Turkey's current account deficit as a percentage of GDP was one of the largest among the OECD countries. In this paper, we examine if this deficit can be considered sustainable using the Engel and Rogers (2006) approach. In this framework, the current account of a...

The departure of Tony Thirlwall, a pioneer, renowned scholar, and a generous mentor, is a major loss to economics. This article reviews his main contributions to economics. The article focuses on his approach and method to economics and on his research output in the theory and empirics of growth...

We compute optimally diversified international asset portfolios for banks located in France, Germany, Italy, the U.K., and the U.S., using the mean-variance portfolio model with currency hedging. We compare these benchmark portfolios to the actual cross-border asset positions of banks from...

This study investigates the linkage between portfolio investment and economic growth in 18 developed and 27 developing countries. Furthermore, it compares and analyzes interest-bearing and non-interest-bearing assets and the economic development level. The results of our analysis show that...

This study analyzes the loss potential arising from investments into CDS for a sample of large U.S. and German mutual funds. Further, it investigates whether the comments funds make on CDS use in periodic fund reports are consistent with the disclosed CDS holdings. For several funds in the U.S.,...