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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment - Insights from Past Experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2021
The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317000
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Patterns of Current Account Adjustment - Insights from Past Experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2021
The paper examines over seventy episodes of current account adjustment in industrial and major emerging market economies. It argues that these episodes were characterised by strongly divergent economic developments. To reduce this divergence, the paper classifies episodes with similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317052
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Stock market wealth, private saving, and the current account in the United States : should we worry?
Strauß, Hubert - 1999
The paper investigates by means of cointegration analysis whether the recently observed low levels of private saving and the current account balance in the United States are worrisome in the sense that they cannot be sufficiently explained by determinants which performed well in the past. Stock...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011475984
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Relationship between Trade Liberalisation, Growth and Balance of Payments in Developing Countries : An Econometric Study
Parikh, Ashok - 2004
The objectives of this paper are to study the impact of liberalisation on trade deficits and current accounts of developing countries. It is expected that trade liberalisation would promote economic growth from the supply side by leading to a more efficient use of resources, by encouraging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014070258
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Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2007
The paper examines over seventy episodes of current account adjustment in industrial and major emerging market economies. It argues that these episodes were characterised by strongly divergent economic developments. To reduce this divergence, the paper classifies episodes with similar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604808
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Patterns of current account adjustment: insights from past experience
Algieri, Bernardina; Bracke, Thierry - 2007
The paper examines episodes of current account adjustment in individual economies. A central finding is that these episodes are very divergent and can be usefully classified, on the basis of cluster analysis, in three groups. A majority of cases is characterised by internal adjustment,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264156
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Forecasting Macedonian business cycle turning points using Qual VAR model
Petrovska, Magdalena; Krstevska, Aneta; Naumovski, Nikola - Narodna Banka na Republika Makedonija - 2016
This paper aims to assess the usefulness of leading indicators in business cycle research and forecast. Initially we … indicators performs in forecasting turning points of the Macedonian business cycle by employing the Qual VAR approach of Dueker … (2005). In continuation, we evaluate the quality of the selected indicators in pseudo-out-of-sample context. The results …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011623919
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437017
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Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?
Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002
the interest rate spread, the long-term interest rate as well as some monetary indicators and some survey indicators can …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642
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Do recessions occur concurrently across countries? : a multinomial logistic approach
Poon, Aubrey; Zhu, Dan - 2022
We develop a novel multinomial logistic model to detect and forecast concurrent recessions across multi-countries. The key advantage of our proposed framework is that we can detect recessions across countries using the additional informational content from the cross-country panel feature of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013365832