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Beaudry and Portier (2006) provide support for the "news view" of the business cycle, using a vector error correction model. We show that this result hinges on a cointegrating relationship between TFP and stock prices that is not stationary, thus making the estimates not reliable. If we alter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181050
moderation of output volatility compared to the well-known break during the mid-1980s. The period of analysis runs from 1962Q2 to … unconditional volatility and procedures of structural break detection (Inclan–Tiao test and autoregressive conditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147010
volatility in developing and transition economies, using dynamic panel technique. According to an analysis of variance and … expenditures, consumption and GDP volatilities are the major determinants of macroeconomic volatility. The most influential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009788587
inflation and inflation volatility. Using annual data from 1970 to 2011 for a large panel of 180 developed and developing … economies, the results show that, as expected, both measures are positively correlated with output volatility. When the two … empirical findings show that the effect of inflation volatility is positive, while the effect of trend inflation is negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010346738
Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010231015
Policy reforms aimed at boosting long-run growth often have side effects – positive or negative – on an economy’s vulnerability to shocks and their propagation. Macroeconomic shocks as severe and protracted as those since 2007 warrant a reconsideration of the role growth-promoting policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010374493
of volatility, any variable that influences innovation directly affects volatility and growth. This joint endogeneity is … illustrated by working out the effects through which economies with different tax levels differ in their volatility and growth … process. We obtain analytical measures of macro volatility based on cyclical output and on output growth rates for plausible …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014204793
Empirical studies showed that firm-level volatility has been increasing but the aggregate volatility has been … financial development leads to a larger firm-level volatility but a lower aggregate volatility. In addition, our model is also … consistent with the observed decline in volatility of private held firms which do not have (or have only limited) access to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208300
examines annual data for 98 countries over the period 1961-2007 and finds that lower GDP growth volatility in the period …, suggesting that a reduction in volatility in this period was a more general development …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012755344
This paper explores the transmission of non-capital shocks through banking networks. We develop a methodology to construct non-capital (idiosyncratic) shocks, using labor productivity shocks to large firms. We document a change in the relationship between foreign idiosyncratic shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694566