This paper aims to assess tax policy reforms that can sustain universal basic income programs and foster long-term growth and welfare in a currency union that faces fiscal rule constraints and inequality. To address this ongoing government and economics' debate, we developed a Dynamic Stochastic...

In the present paper we question the mainstream diagnosis of Germany's post-2000 stagnation as well as the prescribed remedies. We show that the "institutional sclerosis" view of Germany's stagnation is unfounded and that therefore the political measures proposed and actually taken are...

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007 - 2009 has called the export-led growth model of Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies...

The aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-2009 has called the export-led growth model of Asian economies into question. This paper describes the contribution that macroeconomic policy can make to promote a rebalancing of growth away from dependence on exports to developed economies to...

Most parts of the Euro area have seen seven years of deep economic crisis. The strategy of tightening the fiscal constraints of the SGP has driven many member states into austerity. In contrast, the golden rule of public investment proposed in this study would be one important element of the...

This paper takes stock of the global economic recovery a decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Output losses after the crisis appear to be persistent, irrespective of whether a country suffered a banking crisis in 2007-08. Sluggish investment was a key channel through which these losses...

This paper analyses the short-run effects of fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity in the euro area during the euro crisis. It presents new econometric estimates on the link between cumulative GDP growth and fiscal austerity measures during 2011-2013. The main empirical finding is...

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

Wide-ranging structural reforms are underway in Italy, aimed at addressing key bottlenecks in the product and labor markets. Our analysis, based on the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF), attempts to quantify the potential gains to the economy from a comprehensive package...