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Why Does the Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? The Role of Banks
Minoiu, Camelia; Schneider, Andres; Wei, Min - 2023
We provide evidence on the effect of the slope of the yield curve on economic activity through bank lending. Using … rates) boosts bank profits and the supply of bank loans. Intuitively, a higher term premium represents greater expected … profits on maturity transformation, which is at the core of banks’ business model, and therefore incentivizes bank lending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014353432
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Macroprudential Policies, Economic Growth, and Banking Crises
Belkhir, Mohamed - 2020
Using a sample that covers more than 100 countries over the 2000-2017 period, we assess the impact of macroprudential policies on financial stability. In particular, we examine whether the activation of macroprudential policies is conducive to a lower incidence of systemic banking crises. Our...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012831600
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Financial Deepening, Terms of Trade Shocks, and Growth Volatility in Low-Income Countries
Kpodar, Kangni - 2019
This paper contributes to the literature by looking at the possible relevance of the structure of the financial system-whether financial intermediation is performed through banks or markets-for macroeconomic volatility, against the backdrop of increased policy attention on strengthening growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012871772
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Evaluating alternatives to GDP as measures of social welfare/progress
Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M. van den; Antal, Miklós - 2014
Proposed alternatives to GDP as a measure of social welfare or human progress are briefly evaluated. Four main categories are considered, namely ISEW and GPI based on corrections of GDP, sustainable or green(ed) GDP, genuine savings/investments and composite indexes. All these alternatives turn...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010430649
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GDP as a Measure of Economic Growth and Welfare : Brief Critical Assessment
Bulin, Daniel - 2015
The purpose of our paper is to briefly assess the role of GDP in measuring growth and welfare or in getting insight into the state of an economy. In this view, we propose a synthetic theoretical and historical review of national accounting, emphasizing the most important ideological...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018635
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'Good' and 'Bad' GDP : Output Fall In Transition Economies And The Dead Rat Effect
Popov, Vladimir - 2022
Among the many explanations of the deep transformational recession in the post-communist economies during the transition from a centrally planned economy to market economy in the 1990s there is one that considers this recession as a statistical fiction: the elimination of “unneeded under a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014237722
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GDP Solera : The Ideal Vintage Mix
Almuzara, Martin; Amengual, Dante; Fiorentini, Gabriele; … - 2022
We exploit the information in the successive vintages of gross domestic expenditure (GDE) and gross domestic income (GDI) from the current comprehensive revision to obtain an improved, timely measure of U.S. aggregate output by exploiting cointegration between the different measures and taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013403010
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The Relationship between Average Annual and Quarter-On-Quarter GDP Growth Rates : Implications for Projections and Macroeconomic Analysis
Gonzalez Minguez, José Manuel - 2019
The average annual growth rate of GDP can be formulated algebraically as a weighted average of the quarter-on-quarter growth rates of the preceding and the current year. Sometimes this can give rise to counterintuitive results and misinterpretations of how the economy is evolving. For example, a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012861931
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Demand Adjusted Capital Input and Potential Output in the Context of U.S. Economic Growth
Bitros, Georgios (George) C. - 2019
Two alternative measures of demand adjusted capital input for the U.S. non-farm private business sector are derived and their differential impacts on the potential supply of output are compared to those obtained using the unadjusted index of capital input published by the Congressional Budget...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012869529
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How Much Should We Trust the Dictator's GDP Growth Estimates?
Martinez, Luis R. - 2019
I study the manipulation of GDP growth statistics in non-democracies by comparing the self-reported GDP figures to the nighttime lights recorded by satellites from outer space. I show that the night-lights elasticity of GDP is systematically larger in more authoritarian regimes. This autocracy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900358