recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt … international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we … show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …

recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt … international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we … show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon …

the new enhanced EU fiscal framework, with forecasts being irrational and a pessimistic bias. Recently highlighted …

Exponential growth bias (EGB) is the pervasive tendency of people to perceive a growth process as linear when, in fact … positive cases in the future. The bias is positively correlated with optimistic expectations about the future macroeconomic … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …