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Estimating Sri Lanka’s Potential Output
Ding, Ding; Nelmes, John; Perera, Roshan; Tulin, Volodymyr - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2014
In this paper we present various techniques to estimate Sri Lanka’s potential output and output gap, including statistical and model-based approaches. Compared to conventional statistical filters that rely exclusively on information in a single series, the model-based approaches allow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142089
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What Is in Your Output Gap? Unified Framework & Decomposition into Observables
Andrle, Michal - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
This paper discusses several popular methods to estimate the ‘output gap’. It provides a unified, natural concept for the analysis, and demonstrates how to decompose the output gap into contributions of observed data on output, inflation, unemployment, and other variables. A simple bar-chart...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790260
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Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic
Johnson, Christian A - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2013
unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790335
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Remittances; An Automatic Output Stabilizer?
Hakura, Dalia; Chami, Ralph; Montiel, Peter - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
Remittance flows appear to be falling worldwide for the first time in decades as a result of the ongoing financial turmoil. It is suspected that the drop in remittance income into developing and emerging markets will have a destabilizing effect on these economies. The paper estimates the impact...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999978
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Gdp Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico
Faal, Ebrima - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
This paper analyzes the sources of Mexico's economic growth since the 1960s and compares various decompositions of historical growth into its trend and cyclical components. The role of the implied output gaps in the inflationary process is then assessed. Looking ahead, the paper presents...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005604901
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Relating the Knowledge Production Function to total Factor Productivity; An Endogenous Growth Puzzle
Joutz, Frederick L.; Abdih, Yasser - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2005
The knowledge production function is central to R&D-based growth models. This paper empirically investigates the … knowledge production function and intertemporal spillover effects using cointegration techniques. Time-series evidence suggests … there are two long-run cointegrating relationships. The first captures a long-run knowledge production function; the second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005605296
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Estimating Potential Output and the Output Gap in Slovakia
Konuki, Tetsuya - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2008
statistical method and a production function approach; and a multivariate (MV) Kalman filter method. The MV Kalman filter method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826202
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A Multi-Industry Model of Growth with Financing Constraints
Ilyina, Anna; Samaniego, Roberto M. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2009
This paper develops a multi-industry growth model in which firms require external funds to conduct productivity-enhancing R&D. The cost of research is industry-specific. The tightness of financing constraints depends on the level of financial development and on industry characteristics. Over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008528634
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Vietnam; Bayesian Estimation of Output Gap
Maliszewski, Wojciech - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2010
The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008560446
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The Chilean Output Gap
Medina, Leandro; Magud, Nicolas E. - International Monetary Fund (IMF) - 2011
This paper estimates the potential output (and the output gap) in Chile using several different methodologies. After a structural brake in 1998, the average growth rate of potential output in Chile declined from over 7 percent to 3-4 percent in the aggregate economy, but to less than 2 percent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839353