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Indeterminacy and Forecastability
Fujiwara, Ippei - 2015
Recent studies document the deteriorating performance of forecasting models during the Great Moderation, which conversely implies that forecastability was higher in the preceding era when the economy was unexpectedly volatile. We explain this phenomenon in the context of equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013035349
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A Random Walk Down the Economic Policy Street : Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Forecasting Future Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area and the UK
Junttila, Juha-Pekka - 2017
Recently introduced measure for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) seems to have a role to play in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity both for the euro area and the UK economies in the monthly data from 1997-2016. Inclusion of EPU measures either for the US, UK...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012962828
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower interest rates and inflation in most countries, and increase global …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542
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Credit, Financial Conditions and the Business Cycle in China
Lodge, David - 2019
This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892473
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Seven replies to the critiques of Modern Money Theory
Tymoigne, Éric - 2021
Modern Money Theory (MMT) has generated considerable scrutiny and discussions over the past decade. While it has gained …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795769
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Inflation, investment and growth : a banking approach
Gillman, Max (contributor); Kejak, Michal (contributor) - 2008
Output growth, investment and the real interest rate are all found empirically to be negatively affected by inflation …. But a seeming puzzle arises of opposite Tobin-like inflation effects because theory indicates a negative Tobin effect when … investment falls and a positive Tobin effect when the real interest rate rises. We define inflation's Tobin effect more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003739611
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The effect of inflation on growth : evidence from a panel of transition countries
Gillman, Max (contributor); Harris, Mark N. (contributor) - 2008
results include a role for a normalized money demand, by itself and as part of a nonlinearity in the inflation-growth effect … ; inflation ; money demand ; endogeneity …The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003785297
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The effect of inflation on growth : evidence from a panel of transition countries
Gillman, Max; Harris, Mark N. - 2009
equation model is examined by expanding this into a three equation simultaneous system of output growth, inflation and money …The paper examines the effect of inflation on growth in transition countries. It presents panel data evidence for 13 … effect on growth of inflation or its standard deviation, and one that appears to decline in magnitude as the inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003873058
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Regulation and the Neo-Wicksellian Approach to Monetary Policy
Duca, John V. - 2015
trend output growth using an IS relationship and an output gap based inflation equation. They find a positive link between … inflation to the output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012707817
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Monetary conditions and GDP evolution in Romania
Olteanu, Dan Constantin - 2012
We deal with the evolutions of monetary conditions in Romania before and during the economic crisis, and the extent to which GDP shocks are related to these conditions. The results confirmed the essential role of interest rate, credit and exchange rate in this respect, which underlines the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010529072