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We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989-2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis,...
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cultural identity and financial expectations and by large unrelated to economic background variables like income inequality. We … find evidence that negative financial expectations are positively related to Euroskepticism in Western European countries …
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We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...
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in macroeconomics, economic policy was supposed to work merely through the impact of its announcement on expectations. He … claimed that optimistic expectations of income growth would be created by credible announcement to use government spending to … bring the economy to its required growth rate. Confident expectations generated by government's assurance of future growth …
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.g. output, output per hour) and a positive correlation between long-run growth expectations and cyclical activities. Existing … features comovement and mutual influence of households' growth expectations and market outcomes, which can replicate the … evidence, and suggests a critical role for shifting long-run growth expectations in business cycle fluctuations. …
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