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Nowcasting and forecasting economic growth in the Euro area using principal components

Hindrayanto, Irma; Koopman, Siem Jan; Winter, Jasper de - 2014

Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010395082

A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts

Pincheira, Pablo - 2012

In this article we evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts during the period 1991-2009 using a novel real-time database. We compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110963

Do oil prices predict economic growth? New global evidence

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Sharma, Susan; Poon, Wai Ching; … - In: Energy Economics 41 (2014) C, pp. 137-146

predictability tests that account for the key features of the data, namely, persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity. Our … analysis considers a large number of countries, shows evidence of more out-of-sample predictability with nominal than real oil … prices, finds in-sample predictability to be independent of the use of nominal and real prices, and reveals greater evidence …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010729329

A Bayesian Analysis of the Efficiency of Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany

Behrens, Christoph; Pierdzioch, Christian; Risse, Marian - In: SSRN eLibrary (2018)

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To this end, we use forecasts of four leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2016. We reject the strong form of forecasts efficiency and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012822387

A structural VAR approach to core inflation in Canada

Martel, Sylvain (contributor) - 2008

The author constructs a measure of core inflation using a structural vector autoregression containing oil-price growth, output growth, and inflation. This macro-foundedʺ measure of inflation forecasts total inflation at least as well as other, atheoretical measures. -- Inflation and prices

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003740815

Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty in Individual Survey Expectations

Paloviita, Maritta - 2014

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and real GDP growth forecasts at the micro level and explore forecast uncertainty using two alternative measures, i.e. conventional standard deviation of individual point forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013064553

The Russian economy amidst the war and sanctions

Astrov, Vasily; Kochnev, Artem; Stamer, Vincent; Teti, … - 2024

The marked turnaround in Russia's foreign trade in 2023 exerted strong downward pressure on the Russian rouble, which lost around 30% of its value. Global oil prices were declining in the first half of the year, the EU import embargo on Russian oil depressed prices even further; and on top of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015065596

Estimating and forecasting the impact of inflation on economic growth in Nigeria using threshold analysis

Okoroafor, David O. K.; Adeniji, Sesan O.; Olasehinde, … - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 9 (2018) 1, pp. 1-22

(VAR) models. Granger causality test result showed that inflation does not granger cause economic growth and neither does … inflation, the findings showed that VAR (1) could forecast inflation rate in Nigeria with high degree of accuracy. Hence, this …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011922677

An empirical growth model for major oil exporters

Esfahani, Hadi Salehi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2012

This paper develops a long-run growth model for a major oil exporting economy and derives conditions under which oil revenues are likely to have a lasting impact. This approach contrasts with the standard literature on the "Dutch disease" and the "resource curse", which primarily focuses on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009518225

ARIMA and Neural Networks : An Application to the Real GNP Growth Rate and the Unemployment Rate of U.S.A

Giovanis, Eleftherios - 2009

This paper examines the estimation and forecasting performance of ARIMA models in comparison with some of the most popular and common models of neural networks. Specifically we provide the estimation results of AR-GRNN (Generalized regression neural networks) and the AR-RBF (Radial basis...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012718377