I build a dynamic capital structure model that demonstrates how business-cycle variations in expected growth rates, economic uncertainty, and risk premia influence firms' financing and default policies. Countercyclical fluctuations in risk prices, default probabilities, and default losses arise...

This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power....

Since the early 2000s liquidity in option markets has become less resilient, and our evidence suggests that it is so because of an increased vulnerability to liquidity shocks in the underlying. To demonstrate the causal impact, we consider an incident in which a large broker dealer erroneously...

This article addresses key issues of the Greek sovereign debt crisis, its broader economic distress and growth implications for the Euro Area and offers suggested remedies including growth indexed bonds, fiscal balances over a growth cycle, structural reforms, and using real option analysis in...

The valuation of equity is a central topic in finance and accounting from many fronts. However, equity valuation is still subjective as different analysts obtain target prices that are not similar despite using the same publicly available information. Growth has a substantial influence on the...

This paper shows that firm growth potential – representing a firm's yet-unexercised growth opportunities – is associated with option overpricing and low future delta-hedged option returns. We provide an explanation of this phenomenon based on the idea that retail investors exert buying...