We study the effects of changes in uncertainty about future fiscal policy on aggregate economic activity. Fiscal deficits and public debt have risen sharply in the wake of the financial crisis. While these developments make fiscal consolidation inevitable, there is considerable uncertainty about...

Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic times series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g., a threshold autoregressive...

Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic time series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g. a threshold autoregressive...

The relative importance of permanent (trend) versus cyclical shocks to GDP has been a central issue in macroeconomics, since the work of Nelson and Plosser (1982) and Morley et al. (2003) found large trend shocks. In contrast, Perron and Wada (2009) argued for a one time change in the mean...

We compute steady-state economic growth - defined as the rate of growth that the economy would converge to in the absence of new shocks. This rate can be computed in real-time by means of a parsimonious time-varying parameter (TVP) VAR model. Our procedure offers a relatively agnostic estimation...

English Abstract: Most previous studies on business cycles in emerging markets have focused on elucidating the differences between advanced and emerging countries. However, the present study investigates the differences in two groups of emerging countries, namely, those in Asia and Latin...

In the paper a growth model is developed which admits endogenous growth. Endogenous growth is due to simultaneous efficient accumulation of physical as well as human capital. In contrast to similar growth models, we assume that output can be transformed into either physical or human capital...

In the paper a growth model is developed which admits endogenous growth. Endogenous growth is due to simultaneous efficient accumulation of physical as well as human capital. In contrast to similar growth models, we assume that output can be transformed into either physical or human capital...

Productive structure, external constraint and economic growth: the Brazilian experience - We analyze the sharp drop in the growth rate that has been experienced by the Brazilian economy since the 1980s, using the balance-of-payments-constrained growth approach. Empirical results show that growth...

There is much talk of the knowledge economy, and the central role of ideas and knowledge in generating economic growth. This paper provides a brief review of the economic literature on how skills/ knowledge/ ideas might contribute to higher output or higher rates of growth. Ideas are...