Causal relationships in econometrics are typically based on the concept of predictability and are established in terms of tests for Granger causality. These causal relationships are susceptible to change, especially during times of financial turbulence, making the real-time detection of...

This paper shows that the evolution of the level of Mexico real and real per capita output between 1895 and 2008 can be adequately described through a trendstationary model, affected by 4 structural breaks, which occurred at dates that seem to coincide with domestic institutional arrangements,...

This paper examines the major determinants of GDP growth in Iran using annual time series data spanning from 1960 to 2003. The Iranian economy has been subject to a multitude of structural changes and regime shifts during the sample period. Thus, time series properties of the data are first...

This paper disaggregates energy consumption and GDP data according to end-use to analyze a broad number of developed and developing countries grouped in panels by similar characteristics. Panel long-run causality is assessed with a relatively under-utilized approach recommend by Canning and...

Business cycles and economic growth have long been studied separately, hindering understanding of the nature and causes of economic fluctuations and growth. Here, we present an economic model that incorporates both deterministic trends and persistent fluctuations, derived from a general economic...

This paper examines the sources of economic growth in Algeria, studying the key drivers of their slow and weak economic performance, during the period of 1979-2019 from the perspective of the augmented growth accounting framework and the growth regression method. More specifically, the paper...

This paper studies the evolution of long-run output and labour productivity growth rates in the G-7 countries during the post-war period. We estimate the growth rates consistent with a constant unemployment rate using time-varying parameter models that incorporate both stochastic volatility and...

This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...