We present a statistical model which can be employed to monitor the time evolution of the COVID-19 contagion curve, and of the associated reproduction rate R0. The model is a Poisson autoregression of the daily new observed cases and can, differently from classical exponential growth models,...

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...