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This study draws on the investor protection literature to examine differences in a country's information environment that are likely to explain cross country variation in the extent to which macroeconomic forecasters take account of current earnings when forecasting future growth in GDP. Using a...
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the long-term profitability of their stock recommendations. We develop a one-year-ahead LTG forecast likelihood score and …
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is evidence of nonlinearities in forecast smoothing. It is less pronounced in the tails of the distribution of individual … forecast revisions than in the central part of the distribution. …
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) forecast performance are small relative to the large discrepancies between forecasts and actual outcomes. Interestingly, the … performance of both models is similar to that of forecasts generated by the World Bank's Unified Survey. The results do not …
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