Showing 1 - 10 of 6,633
-term potential estimates have risks on both sides: productivity gains and investment could be volatile, but determined reforms could … sustain strong productivity growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005826268
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a survey by GLOBESCAN for Ethical Markets Media, LLC which was released at the “Beyond GDP” Conference in the European Parliament, 19‐20 November. Design/methodology/approach – The methodology is survey based. Findings –...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014743023
We study forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 36 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. We show that the degree of information rigidity in average forecasts is substantially higher than that in individual forecasts. Individual level...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142097
Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142131
This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142185
We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242185
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790265
The driving force of U.S. economic growth is expected to rotate from the fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding in 2009 to private demand in 2010, with consumption and particularly investment expected to be important contributors to growth. The strength of U.S. investment will hence be a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008727800
The paper provides estimates of global relative poverty trends from 1970 onwards. Relative poverty is shown to have decreased significantly, but at the same time there has been a worsening poverty outcome among up to one billion of the world's poorest citizens. The paper also proposes a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999971
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to take a dispassionate look at the performance of the Indian economy in the light of its recent growth rate acceleration. After 2000, it recorded several years of vertiginous gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate, which made some think that the growth...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014874896