This paper provides new evidence on the stochastic behaviour of the EPU (Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index constructed by Baker et al. (2016) in six of the biggest economies (Canada, France, Japan, US, Ireland, and Sweden) over the period from January 1985 to October 2019. In particular,...

This paper presents a cliometric application of fractional integrated processes to socio-economic time series for France and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. The analysis leads to a significant result: no short or long term cycle appears as the dominant constituent.

This paper examines the relationship between the logarithms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China by applying fractional integration and cointegration methods. These are more general than the standard methods based on the dichotomy between stationary...

This paper examines the relationship between the logarithms of CO2 emissions and real GDP in China by applying fractional integration and cointegration methods. The univariate results indicate that the two series are highly persistent, their orders of integration being around 2, whilst the...

This paper studies long economic series to assess the long-lasting effects of pandemics. We analyze if periods that cover pandemics have a change in trend and persistence in growth, and in level and persistence in unemployment. We find that there is an upward trend in the persistence level of...

The paper provides probability estimates of the state of the GDP growth. A regime-switching model defines the probability of the Greek GDP being in boom or recession. Then probit models extract the predictive information of a set of explanatory (economic and financial) variables regarding the...

This article tests the Black's hypothesis in five crisis-affected Asian countries (India, Japan, Malaysia, South Korea, and Thailand). The hypothesis posits that economies face a positive relationship between output growth and output volatility. Using monthly data of the industrial production...