Previous studies show that firms with low inventory growth outperform firms with high inventory growth in the cross-section of publicly traded firms. In addition, inventory investment is volatile and procyclical, and inventory-to-sales is persistent and countercyclical. We embed an inventory...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

This is the supplemental material to the paper titled "Distinguishing Constraints on Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP, TFP, and The Distribution of Income." It includes additional theoretical and quantitative results. It also includes illustration for the numerical algorithm for our...

With a focus on the entry channel, this paper investigates the role of business deregulation and financial reform in China's credit and stock markets in explaining the rapid economic growth of China over the past twenty years. A dynamic general equilibrium growth model with heterogeneous...

A general equilibrium model featuring multiple realistic sources of financial frictions is developed to study how different constraints interact in equilibrium. We highlight, distinguish, and evaluate their differential impacts and rich interactions. The economic impact of financial inclusion...

We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater...

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky...

This note shows in what circumstances output persistence may invert the pattern of the electoral cycle when inflation expectations are of the adaptive or rational type and the government preferences are quadratic over output and inflation.

Given its size and importance for global commodity markets, the question of how fast the Chinese economy can grow over the medium term is an important one. This paper addresses this question by examining the evolution of the supply side of the Chinese economy over history and projecting how it...

Housing prices diverge from construction prices after 1997 in four major countries. Besides, TFP differences between construction and the general economy account for the evolution of construction prices in the U.S. and Germany, but not in the U.K. and Spain