Both financial and macroeconomic conditions matter for downside risks to the economic outlook. In this paper, we show that the deterioration of the financial and real sides dramatically increase the probability of tail risks of large negative growth over the next year. We propose a real-time...

This paper constructs a simple yet robust model of financial crises and economic growth where financial markets affect real economic activity. Financial markets increase real output by facilitating investment through the borrowing/lending of capital. However, the borrowing of capital is risky...

China is well-placed to avoid the so-called “middle-income trap” and to continue to converge towards the more advanced economies, even though growth is likely to slow from near double-digit rates in the first decade of this millennium to around 7% at the 2020 horizon. However, in order to...

This is the supplemental material to the paper titled "Distinguishing Constraints on Financial Inclusion and Their Impact on GDP, TFP, and The Distribution of Income." It includes additional theoretical and quantitative results. It also includes illustration for the numerical algorithm for our...

Our paper provides the first cross-country evidence on the distinct dynamics of tangible and intangible investments during and after the global financial crisis. The pre-crisis rise of intangible-to-tangible capital ratio was reversed outside the U.S. due to a greater decline of intangible...

A general equilibrium model featuring multiple realistic sources of financial frictions is developed to study how different constraints interact in equilibrium. We highlight, distinguish, and evaluate their differential impacts and rich interactions. The economic impact of financial inclusion...

With a focus on the entry channel, this paper investigates the role of business deregulation and financial reform in China's credit and stock markets in explaining the rapid economic growth of China over the past twenty years. A dynamic general equilibrium growth model with heterogeneous...

We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater...

This paper seeks to estimate the potential output of the Spanish economy, using the production function methodology standard in the literature. According to these estimates, the growth of the potential output of the Spanish economy stood at around 3% in the period 2000-2007, owing to the marked...

The central point of this paper is that both – internal and external – equilibria ought to be involved in the estimation of potential output. If only the data on inflation, unemployment rate and wages are used for its evaluation, no certainty exists that such a level will correspond to a...