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Timing and measuring of Spanish economic growth process in the long term has generated a long debate among a great bulk of researchers. In this paper, we analyze the statistical properties of some Spanish macroeconomic time series in order to offer new evidence to this debate. In particular, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005612342
This paper studies the catching-up process in per capita income of the so-called Asian Dragons and Tigers. It contributes to the literature in several ways. First, it tests the catching-up hypothesis using the longest time span ever considered, from 1870 to 2014. Second, it documents the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011647741
This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649469
In this paper we investigate whether long run time series of income per capita are better described by a trend-stationary model with few structural changes or by unit root processes in which permanent stochastic shocks are responsible for the observed growth discontinuities. To this purpose, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098522
We use TVP models and real-time data to describe the evolution of the leading properties of the yield spread for output growth in five European economies and in the US over the last decades and until the third quarter of 2010. We evaluate the predictive performance of benchmark term-structure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013134715
Reliable and timely information about current economic conditions is crucial for policy makers and expectations formation. This paper demonstrates the efficacy of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and the Purchasing Manager Indices (PMI) in anticipating US real economic activity. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103559
Assessing the global economic outlook is a fundamentally important task of international financial institutions, governments and central banks. In this paper we focus on the consequences of the rapid growth of emerging markets for monitoring and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013108345
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089933
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013262971
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732