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Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this paper, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012961331
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110894
Der Aufsatz gibt einen Überblick über die Quellen von Verzerrungen des US-amerikanischen Konsumentenpreisindexes (CPI) nach oben und unten und diskutiert die Massnahmen, die das Bureau of Labor Statistics ergriffen hat, um sie zu beseitigen. Die verbliebenen Verzerrungen werden quantifiziert....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521570
A number of studies, mostly on the US economy, have shown that real GDP growth could be underestimated due to the imperfect accounting of quality changes of goods and services. Moreover, GDP growth as the indicator reflecting the aggregate growth of the output of the economy does not enable one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012920344
It is common for comparisons to be made of output growth and inflation across groups of countries, yet such comparisons … can result in inconsistencies. We address two problems: (i) how to measure aggregate real output and inflation for groups …-country real GDP, ensuring consistency over space and overall group consistency over time. A new measure of OECD inflation is also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027191
The main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of interest rate, inflation rate, and GDP on real …, and inflation level) is employed. Study adopted Johansen test. Findings indicated that both trace test and max eigenvalue … inflation causes interest rate. On the other hand all other variables are independent with each other. Regressionwas conducted …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009755676
This paper evaluates the success of Inflation Targeting on inflation and growth on a large panel data set of both … evidence to show that the support for a successful Inflation Targeting policy is very weak or non-existent. We use various … the process by which inflation targeting is hypothesised to influence inflation and growth, Section 3 surveys this …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012227388
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic … growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the … reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230450
Digitalisation can be viewed as a major supply/technology shock affecting macroeconomic aggregates that are important for monetary policy, such as output, productivity, investment, employment and prices. This paper takes stock of developments in the digital economy and their possible impacts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012254362