This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth inColombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework alsocaptures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peaceagreement with the...

This study assesses impact of asymmetric oil price shocks on India’s economic growth by using autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) model and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS). This study covers dataset on monthly frequency from 2004: Q1 to 2020: Q4. Findings from the ARDL model...

In the past decade, the Chinese economy has witnessed a great housing boom, accompanied by a slowdown in economic growth and an increase in firms' financial investment. The waning economic prospects are shown to lead to a surge in housing prices by stimulating firms' demand for financial...

Six countries; Qatar, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey (denoted by the acronym QISMUT) are considered the potential primary force of the future international development of Islamic finance. These countries, with both expertise and potential for growth in...

This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth,...

Machine learning tools are well known for their success in prediction. But prediction is not causation, and causal discovery is at the core of most questions concerning economic policy. Recently, however, the literature has focused more on issues of causality. This paper gently introduces some...

Studies of the 2007-09 credit crisis and the resulting recession have revealed the inadequacy of the predominant theoretical frameworks and their failure to propose adequate policy solutions. The presence in the economy of “bank money” and a financial system (not only constituted by banks)...

Laubach and Williams (2003) employ a Kalman filter approach to jointly estimate the neutral real federal funds rate and trend output growth using an IS relationship and an output gap based inflation equation. They find a positive link between these two variables, but also much error surrounding...

Since the 1980s, financial crises have tended to reoccur with increasing frequency and growing intensity. They are endogenously generated by the established OTD (Originate-To-Distribute) model within the new finance-growth paradigm. Good finance fosters the correct allocation of financial...

A large set of financial variables has only limited power to predict a latent factor common to the year-ahead forecast errors for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for three sets of professional forecasters: the Federal...