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Exchange rate movements and fundamentals : impact of oil prices and the People's Republic of China's growth

Chen, Hongyi; Cao, Shuo - 2019

This paper identifies five factors that can capture 95% of the variance across 39 US dollar exchange rates based on the principal component method. A time-varying parameter factor-augmented vector autoregressive (TVP-FAVAR) model is used to analyze the determinants of movements in these exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011992197

Measuring business cycles : a review

Škare, Marinko; Stjepanović, Saša - In: Contemporary economics 10 (2016) 1, pp. 83-94

This article summarizes the main findings on problems related to the measurement and identification of business cycles …. The aim of this study is to define and identify the determinants of business cycles. This paper provides an overview of … literature, but none is perfect. A new development in the field lies in spectral analysis methods for measuring business cycles …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011453001

Macroeconomics, nonlinearities, and the business cycle

Reif, Magnus - 2019

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154125

Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth : The Volatility Link

Maheu, John M.; Song, Yong; Yang, Qiao - 2019

This paper shows that oil shocks primarily impact economic growth through the conditional variance of growth. Our comparison of models focuses on density forecasts. Over a range of dynamic models, oil shock measures and data we fi nd a robust link between oil shocks and the volatility of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014114772

Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks:analysis by region and resource profile

Togonidze, Sophio; Kočenda, Evžen - 2020

This study employs a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to analyse how oil price shocks affect macroeconomic fundamentals in emerging economies. Findings from existing literature remain inconclusive how macroeconomic variables fare towards shocks, especially in emerging economies. The objective...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012289734

Oil price and economic growth : a long story?

Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana; Montañés, … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 4, pp. 1-28

This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649469

Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?

Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011502542

The effects of oil price uncertainty on economic activities in South Africa

Chiweza, Junior T.; Aye, Goodness C. - In: Cogent economics & finance 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-17

This paper investigates the link between oil price uncertainty shocks and key macroeconomic indicators of a net oil importing country, South Africa. Monthly data covering the period 1990:01 to 2015:12 is used. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) methodology is applied incorporating...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023148

A Bayesian Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Structural Change

Kim, Chang-Jin - 2006

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change. Contrary to previous analysis based on classical point estimates, this approach provides a straightforward measure of estimation uncertainty for the counterfactual quantity of interest. We apply the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012735190

Modelling Okun's law - does non-Gaussianity matter?

Kiss, Tamás; Nguyen, Hoang; Österholm, Pär - 2022

In this paper, we analyse Okun's law - a relation between the change in the unemployment rate and GDP growth - using data from Australia, the euro area, the United Kingdom and the United States. More specifically, we assess the relevance of non-Gaussianity when modelling the relation. This is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012799537

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