The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This paper aims to investigate the co-movement between the credit growth and gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Turkey over the period January 2004–October 2019. By taking into account alternative credit decomposition and the variations over time and across frequencies using the wavelet...