The growth-at-risk (GaR) framework links current macrofinancial conditions to the distribution of future growth. Its main strength is its ability to assess the entire distribution of future GDP growth (in contrast to point forecasts), quantify macrofinancial risks in terms of growth, and monitor...

The model of the Russian economy that was formed in the 2000s does not match a new stable growth path, though it helped to calmly overcome the crisis of 2008 and 2009. The state needs to provide stability in the fields under its direct control, i.e. the budgetary and monetary policies. In the...

The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to lower...

This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU). For that purpose we estimate the Banco de...

Last decades developing and emerging countries' priorities shifted towards international capital flows, as a complementary way to finance domestic economic growth. But also last years capital flows and their components are affected by domestic and global crisis that frequently destabilize both...

The point of departure for the study of the impact of energy and environmental policies is the neoclassical theory of economic growth formulated by Cass (1965) and Koopmans (1967). The long-run properties of economic growth models are independent of energy and environmental policies. However,...

Understanding the income/GDP and price elasticities of energy/electricity demand is important for forecasting demand and evaluation of the potential impact of policies. Recent work on the GDP elasticity of economy-wide electricity demand has suggested that this elasticity is both substantially...

In response to growing concerns about global warming and climate change, numerous energy scenario or computable general equilibrium models have been developed worldwide to provide alerts, mitigation, adaptation, financial and sustainability policy options. However, rigorous evidence-based...

This study undertakes an examination of asymmetric adjustment effects between electricity consumption and economic growth in South Africa using quarterly data collected from 1983Q1 to 2013:Q4. In our study, we employ a momentum-threshold co-integration method to examine the long-run equilibrium...

The paper empirically examines the predictive factor of the inflation rate observed to be the vector force of macroeconomic growth decline or rise in the Sierra Leone economy. Thereby adopting a statistical tool of an exogenous univariate auto-regression integrated moving average to build a...