"We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most popular approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly industrial production, employment, and retail sales data to predict...

We distinguish between three different ways of using real-time data to estimate forecasting equations and argue that the most frequently used approach should generally be avoided. The point is illustrated with a model that uses monthly observations of industrial production, employment, and...

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) confirmed in November 2001 what many had long suspected - that the U.S. economy was in recession and had been since March 2001. Thus ended an economic expansion that had begun in March 1991, the longest in the NBER chronology that dates to the...