forecasting approach for East German GDP that takes data availability in real time and regional economic indicators into account …

This paper derives new theoretical results for forecasting with Global VAR (GVAR) models. It is shown that the presence … that (a) regardless of the forecasting methods considered, PMIs are useful for nowcasting, but their value added diminishes … factor-augmented high-dimensional VAR model. The small sample properties of the proposed solution are investigated by Monte …

We analyze the performance of a broad range of nowcasting and short-term forecasting models for a representative set of … indicators that come from a comparable set of identical data. We show that nowcasting works well for the new EU countries because … nowcasting is on average somewhat larger. …

This paper evaluates whether publicly available daily news lead texts help nowcasting Swiss GDP growth. I collect …-based indicators. In a pseudo out-of-sample nowcasting exercise for Swiss GDP growth, the indicator outperforms a monthly Swiss … business cycle indicator if one month of information is available. Improvements in nowcasting accuracy mainly occur in times of …

indicators for forecasting quarterly Chinese GDP growth. We iterate the evaluation over forecast horizons from 370 days to 1 day … 2009. Industrial production can be quite valuable for now- or even forecasting, but only if it is released shortly after … manufacturing purchasing managers' index of the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics help much for now- or forecasting. Our results …

nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that …

informative content of the carry-over effect for short-term forecasting is undisputed and is used routinely in economic … forecasting. In this paper, the carry-over effect is analysed ‘statistically’ and it is shown how it reduces the uncertainty of …

models tend to be more sluggish to adjust. - Forecasting ; Dynamic factor model ; PMI model …