Using a unique money manager database that allows managers to identify their own investment styles, we examine 4,754 non mutual fund value- and growth-oriented portfolios over the period 1999-2003. Consistent with style definitions, we find that on average, growth funds have price-earnings...

The link between systemic risk and economic growth is hard to study because the relationship is believed to be nonlinear and systemic risk is unobservable. The myriad of measures proposed in the literature add model uncertainty as an additional difficulty. I use a Bayesian quantile regression to...

Im Zentrum dieser Dissertation steht das Beschreiben und Erklären von Konjunkturdynamiken. Motiviert durch den außerordentlich starken wirtschaftlichen Einbruch in 2008/2009 betont die Arbeit dabei die Wichtigkeit der Nutzung von nichtlinearen Modellansätzen. Die Dissertation kann als Beitrag...

Artificial neural networks have become increasingly popular for statistical model fitting over the last years, mainly due to increasing computational power. In this paper, an introduction to the use of artificial neural network (ANN) regression models is given. The problem of predicting the GDP...

This article provides a rigorous asymptotic analysis of long-term growth rates under both proportional and Morton-Pliska transaction costs. We consider a general incomplete financial market with an unspanned Markov factor process that includes the Heston stochastic volatility model and the...

We develop two new methods for calibrating subjective expectations regarding the return generating process (RGP) of financial assets without resorting to noisy realized returns. Using finance professionals' expectations of average and extreme returns, volatilities, and probabilities of stocks...