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To understand macroeconomic risks underlying currency carry trades, I propose exploiting rich source of information from analysts’ economic growth forecasts. Specifically, I obtain measures of global growth prospects from the cross-analyst distribution of real GDP growth forecasts. I find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013406207
This paper examines long memory volatility in international stock markets. We show that long memory volatility is … memory in volatility than emerging and frontier countries and that stock market jumps are negatively correlated with long … memory of volatility. Overall, our results provide some evidence of a link between stock market uncertainty and macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853413
This paper revisits the link between finance and growth and proposes a new comprehensive measure of financial development that captures the overall structure of the financial sector and its degree of institutional diversification (ID). We document a significant link between this new measure and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013037698
real effects resulting from a more efficient resource allocation predicted by theory. We find that: (a) financial … financial integration and globalization predict higher growth, lower growth volatility, as well as lower probabilities of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013144840
finance nor to traditional economical theories? Inspired by rational choice theory, this paper tries to explore this largely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021105
degree of confidence in stocks beating bonds, with moderate returns and volatility, and no extreme returns. For most subjects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012995634
We consider whether key financial variables predict macroeconomic series and if any predictive power for output growth is also seen in consumption or investment growth. Such information will allow the use of financial markets as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance. Full sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860534
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014634019
brink of collapse and the deepest contraction in world output in more than half a century followed. Moreover, unprecedented …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012929483
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831935