En la actualidad existe cierto debate teórico-empírico sobre la relación causal entre el crecimiento del sector financiero bursátil con respecto a la dinámica de crecimiento económico. Al respecto, en México es escaso el trabajo colegiado sobre el sector de las finanzas bursátiles, y en...

In recent years, the number of listed companies has been declining in many countries across the world. This paper provides a selective survey of the literature on the real economic effects of the stock market to assess the potential effects of this decline and determine whether it is likely to...

Consistent with neoclassical models with investment lags, we find that a bottom-up measure of aggregate investment plans, namely, aggregate expected investment growth, negatively predicts future stock market returns. with an adjusted in-sample R2 of 18.5% and an out-of-sample R2 of 16.3% at the...

This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...

We consider whether key financial variables predict macroeconomic series and if any predictive power for output growth is also seen in consumption or investment growth. Such information will allow the use of financial markets as a leading indicator for macroeconomic performance. Full sample...

A bottom-up measure of aggregate investment plans, namely, aggregate expected investment growth (AEIG) can negatively predict market returns. At the one-year horizon, the adjusted in-sample R-square is 18.2% and the out-of-sample R-square is 14.4%. The return predictive power is robust after...

In the context of an autoregressive panel data model with fixed effect, we examine the relationship between consistent parameter estimation and consistent model selection. Consistency in parameter estimation is achieved by using the tansformation of the fixed effect proposed by Lancaster (2002)....

Many market participants continuously dole out advice that higher economic growth results in higher investment returns. This tendency persists even though there has been much investment research providing evidence to the contrary. With the help of some examples and data presented by others, the...