There is a general acceptance of the fact that a significant direct relationship between financial markets and macroeconomic variables exists, especially by considering the assertion that developed financial markets correspond to high GDP levels. This paper provides an investigation of the...

The recent macro-finance yield curve literature does not agree neither about term premia empirical properties nor about the importance or even the direction of its relationship with future economic activity. This paper proposes a two-step approach to handle both problems. First, in a VAR...

First, the concept of public expenditure multiplier is redefined to allow for import intensity of exports, and its value is estimated for Poland and the Czech Republic in 2008-2009. Next, on the basis of effective demand model of economic dynamics, there follows a comparative analysis of GDP...

This paper incorporates a bubble term in the standard FTPL equation to explain why countries with persistently negative primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides an example with closed-form solutions in which idiosyncratic risk on capital...

This paper examines the forecastability of GDP growth using information from the term structure of yields. In contrast to previous studies, the paper shows that the curvature of the yield curve contributes with much more forecasting power than the slope of yield curve. The yield curvature also...