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Tractable rare disaster probability and options-pricing
Barro, Robert J.; Liao, Gordon Y. - 2019
We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182396
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Correlations, Value Factor Returns, and Growth Options
Schoenleber, Lorenzo - 2020
Ex ante (expected) average equity market correlation is linked to the differential correlation dynamics of growth and value firms, as well as the value premium. It predicts returns on the value factor, returns of growth firms, and the changes in growth options within an economy for horizons up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012846985
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The aftermath of debt surges
Kose, M. Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Reinhart, Carmen M.; … - 2021
, fiscal consolidation, privatization, and wealth taxation) and heterodox options (inflation, financial repression, debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012655299
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Germany's post-2000 stagnation in the European context - a lesson in macroeconomic mismanagement
Hein, Eckhard; Truger, Achim - 2006
In the present paper we question the mainstream diagnosis of Germany's post-2000 stagnation as well as the prescribed remedies. We show that the "institutional sclerosis" view of Germany's stagnation is unfounded and that therefore the political measures proposed and actually taken are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003744530
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After the death of inflation : will fiscal drag survive?
Heinemann, Friedrich - 2000
Declining inflation rates might have negative consequences for tax revenues. Phenomena like the inflationary bracket … lay the theoretical base followed by a descriptive view on the relation between inflation, growth and tax revenues in the … reveal that an end of inflation would have a negative impact on tax revenues for a number of OECD countries. The results also …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011444606
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Namibian Economy : Recent Developments and Future Expectations
Rena, Ravinder - 2015
Namibia celebrated its 20th birthday in 2010. The tertiary sector in Namibia contributes more than 50 per cent to GDP, followed by primary and secondary industries. Mining and quarrying account for about 13 per cent of GDP, compared with 6 per cent and 4 per cent for agriculture and fisheries,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038488
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The fiscal theory of the price level with a bubble
Brunnermeier, Markus Konrad; Merkel, Sebastian; … - 2020
primary surpluses can have a positively valued currency and low inflation. It also provides an example with closed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213139
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Secular Stagnation : Determinants and Consequences for Australia
Taylor, Grace - 2017
Larry Summers' re-use of the phrase appears justified in the present global economic climate since many factors contribute to comparatively poor OECD economic performance and weakening macroeconomic policy instruments. Some are measurement issues and others might be seen as the downsides of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012965665
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Asymmetic Macroeconomic Policies, Weak Rules and Muddy Growth Perspectives (Asymmetrische Makropolitiken, Schwache Regelmechanismen Und Eingetrübte Wachstumsperspektiven) (German)
Schnabl, Gunther - 2009
The macroeconomic policy response to the global financial and economic crisis has brought interest rates (close to) zero and the public debt to record levels despite institutionalized monetary and fiscal polity rules. The paper discusses the long-term implications of asymmetric fiscal and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014202495
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Inflation Anchoring, Real Borrowing Costs, and Growth : Evidence from Sectoral Data
Choi, Sangyup - 2019
Central bankers often assert that anchoring of inflation expectations and reducing inflation uncertainty are good for …-in-difference strategy is based on the theoretical prediction that inflation uncertainty has larger effects in industries that are more …-anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to controlling for the interaction between these characteristics and a broad set …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012868768