Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic times series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g., a threshold autoregressive...

Many modelling issues and policy debates in macroeconomics depend on whether macroeconomic time series are best characterized as linear or nonlinear. If departures from linearity exist, it is important to know whether these are endogenously generated (as in, e.g. a threshold autoregressive...

We consider several variants of a likelihood-ratio process for quantile regression designed to test composite hypotheses about the combined influence of several covariates over an entire range of conditional quantile functions. A closely related process is proposed as a goodness-of-fit criterion...

We estimate models of consumption growth that allow for long-run risks and disasters using data for a series of countries over a time span of 200 years. Our estimates indicate that a model with small and frequent disasters that arrive at a mean-reverting rate best fits international consumption...

Growth models often give rise to saddle-point stable dynamic systems with multi-dimensional stable manifolds. It is argued that standard solution procedures used to numerically approximate the transition process are generally inadequate when the (stable) eigenvalues differ substantially in...