movements have had important implications for inflation and economic activity in both Canada and the rest of the world. China …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than … anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 … find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …

This paper provides evidence of de-anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area based on both time … series and panel methods and data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. Long-term inflation expectations recorded … two sharp and permanent declines: the first after the 2013 disinflation, the second in early 2019. Long-term inflation …

Recovering from the COVID sell-off, inflation brekaeven increased sharply in the second half of 2020 while real yields … declined materially. The analysis decomposes the inflation breakevens to strip out the role of inflation expectations and risk … premia. Despite evidence of upward movement in five-year market-implied inflation expectations after the March sell …

This paper investigates how inflation and its uncertainty impact GDP growth in eight Central and Eastern European … Countries. Inflation uncertainty series are created examining several GARCH models in combination with three different … distribution functions, while the nonlinear effect of inflation and its uncertainty on GDP growth is assessed in the Bayesian …