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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525
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Oil price and economic growth : a long story?
Gadea, María Dolores; Gómez-Loscos, Ana; Montañés, … - In: Econometrics : open access journal 4 (2016) 4, pp. 1-28
This study investigates changes in the relationship between oil prices and the US economy from a long-term perspective. Although neither of the two series (oil price and GDP growth rates) presents structural breaks in mean, we identify different volatility periods in both of them, separately....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649469
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Financial variables as predictors of real growth vulnerability
Reichlin, Lucrezia; Ricco, Giovanni; Hasenzagl, Thomas - 2020 - This version: 30th October 2019
We evaluate the role of financial conditions as predictors of macroeconomic risk first in the quantile regression framework of Adrian et al. (2019b), which allows for non-linearities, and then in a novel linear semi-structural model as proposed by Hasenzagl et al. (2018). We distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012173525
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Essays in international macroeconomics
Scholl, Almuth - 2006
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003315521
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The Global Economic Barometers : composite indicators for the world economy
Abberger, Klaus; Graff, Michael; Campelo, Aloisio; … - 2020
This paper presents a coincident and a leading composite monthly indicator for the world business cycle - the Global … Economic Barometers. Both target the world’s output growth rate cycle. The calculation of these indicators comprises two main …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170717
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Volatility and growth : governments are key
Jetter, Michael - 2013
There exists a persistent disagreement in the literature over the effect of business cycles on economic growth. This paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a negative indirect effect, operating through the insurance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010228789
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Distribution-led growth in the long run
Nikiforos, Michalis - 2014
The paper examines the long-run fluctuations in growth and distribution through the prism of wage-and profit-led growth. We argue that the relation between distribution of income and growth changes over time. We propose an endogenous mechanism that leads to fluctuations between wage- and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402587
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Financial Development and Economic Volatility : A Unified Explanation
Wang, Pengfei; Wen, Yi - 2009
Empirical studies showed that firm-level volatility has been increasing but the aggregate volatility has been decreasing in the US for the post-war period. This paper proposes a unified explanation for these diverging trends. Our explanation is based on a story of financial development -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014208300
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The Chinese impact on GDP growth and inflation in the industrial countries
Dreger, Christian; Zhang, Yanqun - 2011
The integration of China into the global economy is one of the most spectacular events in economic history. This paper investigates to what extent this process affects output growth and inflation in the advanced countries. A GVAR model is specified to explore interdependencies between business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009515006
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Technology, Growth and the Business Cycle
Imbs, Jean M. - 2001
The paper uses a partial equilibrium model to simulate times series on inputs utilization rates--capital utilization and labor effort--for 10 OECD countries. The resulting series are filtered from standard measures of the Solow residual. The main findings are as follows: once variable inputs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213105