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vividly illustrated. This paper investigates how changes in trade linkages between China, Latin America, and the rest of the … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … from Latin America and the rest of emerging Asia (excluding China and India) GDP has not undergone any significant change …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525
The integration of China into the global economy is one of the most spectacular events in economic history. This paper … to explore interdependencies between business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area … and Japan. For robustness, the results are compared to those obtained from leading structural models, such as NiGEM and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009515006
Are there still significant common macroeconomic fluctuations between Nigeria and its industrial trade partners, even with the increased growth performance and resilience of emerging market and developing economies to developments originating from advanced economies in recent years? This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013348356
Convergence and synchronisation of business and growth cycles are important issues in the efficient formulation of euro area economic policies, and in particular European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy. Although several studies in the economics literature address the issue of synchronicity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136909
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316407
The paper uses a partial equilibrium model to simulate times series on inputs utilization rates--capital utilization and labor effort--for 10 OECD countries. The resulting series are filtered from standard measures of the Solow residual. The main findings are as follows: once variable inputs...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213105
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013168486
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075576
We find that Chinese trade flows respond to economic activity and relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationships are not always precisely or robustly estimated. Chinese exports are generally well-behaved, rising with foreign GDP and decreasing as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106099