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Predictive Performance of Mixed-Frequency Nowcasting and Forecasting Models (with Application to Philippine Inflation and GDP Growth)
Mariano, Roberto S.; Ozmucur, Suleyman - 2020
This paper studies the comparative predictive accuracy of forecasting methods using mixed-frequency data, as applied to nowcasting Philippine inflation, real GDP growth, and other related macroeconomic variables. It focuses on variations of mixed-frequency dynamic latent factor models (DFM for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014094788
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The Long Memory of Equity Volatility and the Macroeconomy : International Evidence
Dräger, Lena - 2020
This paper examines long memory volatility in international stock markets. We show that long memory volatility is … memory in volatility than emerging and frontier countries and that stock market jumps are negatively correlated with long … memory of volatility. Overall, our results provide some evidence of a link between stock market uncertainty and macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853413
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Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns
Guzman, Giselle - 2012
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013110732
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Predicting GDP Growth with Stock and Bond Markets : Do They Contain Different Information?
McMillan, David G. - 2019
This paper examines the ability of bond and stock markets to predict subsequent GDP growth over a range of horizons for twelve international countries. The results, using linear, probit, time- and regime-varying in-sample regressions and out-of-sample forecasting, confirm the view that both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012891593
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Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth
Phiri, Andrew - 2018
In this paper, we challenge the traditional assumption of a linear relationship between exchange rate volatility and … volatility positively and significantly influences economic growth when growth in government spending is below 6 percent. Above … this 6 percent threshold, volatility exerts an insignificant effect on economic growth. In light of the adoption of a free …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011870188
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Nowcasting World GDP Growth with High-Frequency Data
Jardet, Caroline; Meunier, Baptiste - 2020
The Covid-19 crisis has shown how high-frequency data can help tracking economic turning points in real-time. Our paper investigates whether high-frequency data can also improve the nowcasting performances for world GDP growth on quarterly or annual basis. To this end, we select a large dataset...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014090107
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Oil price shocks and economic growth : the volatility link
Maheu, John M.; Song, Yong; Yang, Qiao - In: International journal of forecasting 36 (2020) 2, pp. 570-587
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012415259
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Density forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models under macroeconomic data uncertainty
Clements, Michael P.; Galvão, Ana Beatriz C. - In: Journal of applied econometrics 38 (2023) 2, pp. 164-185
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287961
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Nowcasting East German GDP growth : a MIDAS approach
Claudio, João Carlos; Heinisch, Katja; Holtemöller, Oliver - 2019
Economic forecasts are an important element of rational economic policy both on the federal and on the local or regional level. Solid budgetary plans for government expenditures and revenues rely on efficient macroeconomic projections. However, official data on quarterly regional GDP in Germany...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012146339
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Evaluating Predictive Densities of U.S. Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set
Rossi, Barbara - 2013
We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflation using a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number of macroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013089933