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This study provides analytical insight on modelling macroeconomic and oil price volatility in Nigeria. Mainly, the … GARCH - M); and oil price is a major source of macroeconomic volatility in Nigeria. By implication, the Nigerian economy is … vulnerable to both internal shocks (interest rate volatility, real GDP volatility) and external shocks (exchange rate volatility …
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volatility, especially in the past decade. Nevertheless, dollarised countries benefit from higher levels of investment and trade …
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We derive an option-pricing formula from recursive preference and estimate rare disaster probability. The new options-pricing formula applies to far-out-of-the money put options on the stock market when disaster risk dominates, the size distribution of disasters follows a power law, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012182396
Since the early 2000s liquidity in option markets has become less resilient, and our evidence suggests that it is so because of an increased vulnerability to liquidity shocks in the underlying. To demonstrate the causal impact, we consider an incident in which a large broker dealer erroneously...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012844386
This paper explores the extent to which commodity prices can predict GDP growth rates of various countries using indices of 27 commonly traded commodity futures. Commodity returns can strongly predict the next quarter's GDP growth, while the basis shows a reasonable level of predictive power....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012833341