This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

This study constructs a Bayesian nonparametric model to investigate whether stock market returns predict real economic growth. Unlike earlier studies, our use of an infinite hidden Markov model enables parameters to be time-varying across an infinite number of Markov-switching states estimated...