Chinese growth, astounding since the beginning of the reform era, has slowed in the last decade. We offer a baseline estimate (based on the current trend) of China's medium-term growth rate, which we project to fall to 2.4 percent by 2035. Several factors create uncertainty around this baseline....

In this paper we explore empirically a long-standing question in the literature on finance for growth, namely whether the financial structure -in terms of the size of the banking system relative to the capital market- matters for economic growth. We build upon the existing literature by...

As the Chinese economy continues to decelerate, the central government is investing heavily in innovation, doubling down on research and development (R&D) spending and STEM-oriented human capital. In this paper, we assess China's progress so far, looking at the inputs to innovation (R&D and...

Chinese growth, astounding since the beginning of the reform era, has slowed in the last decade. We offer a baseline estimate (based on the current trend) of China’s medium-term growth rate, which we project to fall to 2.4 percent by 2035.Several factors create uncertainty around this...

The Chinese economy has been undergoing a structural slowdown during the past decade, due to aging, decelerating productivity, and lower returns on assets. The COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with China’s dynamic Zero-COVID policies, have worsened that trend, together with two other important...